Publications

@article{JIMENEZ-NAVARRO24,

title = {Explaining deep learning models for ozone pollution prediction via embedded feature selection},

author = {M. J. Jiménez-Navarro and M. Martínez-Ballesteros and F. Martínez-Álvarez and G. Asencio-Cortés},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568494624002783},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2024.111504},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-04-04},

journal = {Applied Soft Computing},

volume = {157},

pages = {111504},

abstract = {Ambient air pollution is a pervasive global issue that poses significant health risks. Among pollutants, ozone (O3) is responsible for an estimated 1 to 1.2 million premature deaths yearly. Furthermore, O3 adversely affects climate warming, crop productivity, and more. Its formation occurs when nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react with short-wavelength solar radiation. Consequently, urban areas with high traffic volume and elevated temperatures are particularly prone to elevated O3 levels, which pose a significant health risk to their inhabitants. In response to this problem, many countries have developed web and mobile applications that provide real-time air pollution information using sensor data. However, while these applications offer valuable insight into current pollution levels, predicting future pollutant behavior is crucial for effective planning and mitigation strategies. Therefore, our main objectives are to develop accurate and efficient prediction models and identify the key factors that influence O3 levels. We adopt a time series forecasting approach to address these objectives, which allows us to analyze and predict O3 future behavior. Additionally, we tackle the feature selection problem to identify the most relevant features and periods that contribute to prediction accuracy by introducing a novel method called the Time Selection Layer in Deep Learning models, which significantly improves model performance, reduces complexity, and enhances interpretability. Our study focuses on data collected from five representative areas in Seville, Cordova, and Jaen provinces in Spain, using multiple sensors to capture comprehensive pollution data. We compare the performance of three models: Lasso, Decision Tree, and Deep Learning with and without incorporating the Time Selection Layer. Our results demonstrate that including the Time Selection Layer significantly enhances the effectiveness and interpretability of Deep Learning models, achieving an average effectiveness improvement of 9% across all monitored areas.},

keywords = {deep learning, feature selection, time series, XAI},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{TRONCOSO-GARCIA23b,

title = {Explainable hybrid deep learning and Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm for improving evapotranspiration forecasting},

author = {A. R. Troncoso-García and I. S. Brito and A. Troncoso and F. Mártinez-Álvarez},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169923007755},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.108387},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-11-08},

journal = {Computers and Electronics in Agriculture},

volume = {215},

pages = {108387},

abstract = {Reference evapotranspiration is a critical hydrological measurement closely associated with agriculture. Accurate forecasting is vital in effective water management and crop planning in sustainable agriculture. In this study, the future values of reference evapotranspiration are forecasted by applying a recurrent long shortterm memory neural network optimized using the Coronavirus Optimization Algorithm, a novel bioinspired metaheuristic based on the spread of COVID-19. The input data is sourced from the Sistema Agrometeorológico para a Gestão da Rega no Alentejo, in Portugal, with meteorological data such as air temperature or wind speed. Several baseline models are applied to the same problem to facilitate comparisons, including support vector machines, multi-layer perceptron, Lasso and decision tree. The results demonstrate the successful forecasting performance of the proposed model and its potential in this field. In turn, to gain deeper insights into the model’s inner workings, the SHapley Additive exPlanation tool is applied for explainability. Consequently, the study identifies the most relevant variables for reference evapotranspiration forecasting, including previously measured evapotranspiration values. Additionally, a univariable model is tested using historic evapotranspiration values as input, offering a comparable performance with a considerable reduction of computational time},

keywords = {deep learning, forecasting, precision agriculture, XAI},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{TRONCOSO-GARCIA23,

title = {A new approach based on association rules to add explainability to time series forecasting models},

author = {A. R. Troncoso-García and M. Martínez-Ballesteros and F. Mártinez-Álvarez and A. Troncoso},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566253523000295},

doi = {10.1016/j.inffus.2023.01.021},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-22},

journal = {Information Fusion},

volume = {94},

pages = {169-180},

abstract = {Machine learning and deep learning have become the most useful and powerful tools in the last years to mine information from large datasets. Despite the successful application to many research fields, it is widely known that some of these solutions based on artificial intelligence are considered black-box models, meaning that most experts find difficult to explain and interpret the models and why they generate such outputs. In this context, explainable artificial intelligence is emerging with the aim of providing black-box models with sufficient interpretability. Thus, models could be easily understood and further applied. This work proposes a novel method to explain black-box models, by using numeric association rules to explain and interpret multi-step time series forecasting models. Thus, a multi-objective algorithm is used to discover quantitative association rules from the target model. Then, visual explanation techniques are applied to make the rules more interpretable. Data from Spanish electricity energy consumption has been used to assess the suitability of the proposal.},

keywords = {association rules, time series, XAI},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}